February 10, 2021

The Battle for Libya

Russia’s and Turkey’s Interventions, Haftar’s Retreat, and the Prospects for Peace

On June 4, the internationally-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) seized the Tripoli International Airport, completing its expulsion of Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) from the city. As Haftar’s forces retreat, Libya’s long civil war enters a new phase.

The GNA’s victory in Tripoli was only possible with massive Turkish support, while last week, reports emerged that Russia deployed MiG-29 and Su-24 fighter jets to the al-Jufrah airbase to support LNA operations. The stakes are rising and Turkey and Russia’s competition for influence in Libya continues. What will be the Libyan factions’ next moves? How will the regional powers react to these events? Will Haftar’s loss increase the chances of a peace deal? Or will the violence continue? In this discussion, the speakers will attempt to answer these questions and more.

Participants

Jalel Harchaoui Research Fellow, Conflict Research Unit, Clingendael Institute

Dario Cristiani Fellow, Istituto Affari Internazionali/German Marshall Fund

Dr. Can Kasapoglu Director of the Defense and Security Program, EDAM

Sergey Sukhankin Fellow, The Jamestown Foundation

Moderator

Glen Howard President, The Jamestown Foundation

Participant Biographies

Dario Cristiani is the IAI/GMF Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS) in Washington D.C., working on Italian foreign policy, Mediterranean Security, Terrorism and Global Politics in close connection with Istituto Affari Internazionali in Rome. He is also a Visiting Scholar at the International Centre for Policing and Security at the University of South Wales in Pontypridd (UK) and a political risk consultant working with businesses operating in Mediterranean markets. He has been the director of the Executive Training in Global Risk Analysis and Crisis Management, (GRACM) and an adjunct professor in International Affairs and Conflict Studies at Vesalius College (VUB) in Brussels (2014/2018) and continues to teach as a guest lecturer in several institutions in Europe and North Africa (Koninklijke Militaire School, Istituto Alti Studi Difesa, SIT Tunis). He received his Ph.D. in Middle East & Mediterranean Studies from King’s College London in 2015. The views expressed in his articles are his own and do not necessarily represent those of the German Marshall Fund. ***

Jalel Harchaoui joined the Conflict Research Unit of the Clingendael Institute in February 2019 as Research Fellow. His work focuses on Libya, covering aspects such as the country’s security landscape and political economy. Jalel holds a master’s degree in Geopolitics from Paris 8 University. His doctoral research has focused on the international dimension of the Libyan conflict. A frequent commentator on Libya in the international press, He has published widely, including in Foreign Affairs, Lawfare, Politique Étrangère, Middle East Eye, and Small Arms Survey.

Dr. Can Kasapoglu is the director of the defense and security program at the Istanbul-based think-tank EDAM and a fellow with the German research institute SWP. Dr. Kasapoglu holds a M.Sci. degree from the Turkish Military Academy and a Ph.D. from the Turkish War College. Dr. Can Kasapoglu was an Eisenhower fellow at the NATO Defense College in Rome and a visiting scholar the the NATO Coopertive Cyber Defense Center of Excellence in Tallinn. His works can be followed @EdamDefense

Dr. Sergey Sukhankin is a Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, and an Advisor at Gulf State Analytics (Washington, D.C.). He received his PhD in Contemporary Political and Social History from the Autonomous University of Barcelona. His areas of interest include Kaliningrad and the Baltic Sea region, Russian information and cyber security, A2/AD and its interpretation in Russia, the Arctic region, and the development of Russian private military companies since the outbreak of the Syrian Civil War. He has consulted or briefed with CSIS (Canada), DIA (USA), and the European Parliament. He is based in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.

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The Jamestown Foundation